picture this: the united states wakes up on Nov. 9 — and no winner has been declared within the presidential race.
Sound unimaginable? It’s no longer. With Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump breathtakingly shut in polls of key states, analysts are starting to consider the potential for recounts that will prolong the outcome.
Trump has stated he’ll maintain the country “in suspense” about whether he would settle for the consequences of the election. So let’s say neither he nor Clinton decisively wins sufficient states on Tuesday to present them the required 270 or more Electoral college votes.
in lots of states — however not all — calling for a recount could be an possibility: 43 states allow a dropping candidate or different concerned parties to petition for a recount, in step with the nationwide conference of State Legislatures.
And in sure states, a recount is automated if the election is shut. One such state is Florida, house to the famously shut George W. Bush/Al Gore contest of 2000. The Supreme court in some way settled that controversy, giving Bush a majority of votes within the Electoral school and the presidency.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight assigns a low probability, albeit a possibility, of a recount in a state that decides the Electoral faculty.
also, there’s an 8% chance of a recount in a state that decides the Electoral faculty.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2016
It’s a close to-sure bet that Florida’s results can be close this 12 months. As of Thursday, Trump was once simply 0.three share point ahead of Clinton in the RealClearPolitics reasonable of polls. A recount in Florida is triggered through a special of zero.5% or less between the candidates.
laws fluctuate, however a lengthen as a result of any given state would spook buyers and roil markets.
“What the markets would no longer want to reside with is an end result that is doubtful for days and even weeks after the election — a state of affairs that can’t be completely brushed aside,” wrote Greg Valliere of Horizon Investments in a note Thursday morning. “This race is now so close that a recount in Colorado or North Carolina or (gulp) Florida is a risk.”
learn: Do Trump’s rising poll numbers imply you should sell shares?
have in mind that a candidate would have limited time to contest the vote. This year, the Electoral school is due to meet on Dec. 19. by means of regulation, electors meet on the first Monday after the 2d Wednesday in December.
There’s at the least yet another scenario to believe: a tie within the Electoral faculty. If a candidate doesn’t get 270 or more electoral votes, it is up to the home of Representatives to decide the presidency. every state’s delegation will get one vote. With the home in Republican hands, that favors Trump.