in point of fact?
while you assign zero probability to one thing and then that thing happens, an evidence is deserved.
So, here we go.
in the course of October — earlier than the audio tapes, sooner than the 2d FBI e mail probe — I looked at the map and said there was once no chance Hillary Clinton wouldn’t win.
I looked at all of the imaginable catalysts to shift the race. They gave the impression unbelievable to the point of impossibility to me. I even considered October surprises. It grew to become out there have been two, one against Trump (the audio tapes) and one against Clinton (the recent FBI investigation).
The 2d e-mail scandal trumped, forgive the word, Trump’s grabby proclivities. It brought house to enough voters that Clinton used to be mainly above the law. It’s no longer for nothing that Trump’s closing message was once “drain the swamp.” Trump didn’t escape unscathed from his personal hole, however the gender hole wasn’t vast enough to cost him the election.
Trump’s enchantment was something I understood: that he used to be the final word center finger to the institution — both Democrats and Republicans — and the insurance policies it backed, from immigration to exchange, that by no means benefited the working category.
never thoughts that the theory of Trump draining any swamp is preposterous, given his mountains of moral lapses and scandals. Or that tariffs in the brief time period would be extra pricey to the individuals who voted for Trump than any policy Clinton had in store.
Exit polls confirmed folks were after “change.” now not someone astute at governing, or full of ideas that will make their way of life marginally higher. Some sixty one% of voters, in keeping with exit polls, believed Trump was once unqualified to be president. That’s an magnificent verdict provided that the same individual was once the choice of the voters.
That stated, it’s weird that President Obama’s approval rating is above 50%. There’s a universe of individuals, maybe no longer enormous but now not insignificant, who approve of Trump and of Obama. Trump was mocked for chasing the main-season backers of socialist-cum-Democrat Bernie Sanders, but he picked off enough of them, it appears.
additionally, it’s a must to provide credit to the Trump group for that focus. Trump used to be at all times robust in Ohio, however his enchantment there spilled over into a large swath of the Midwest. His late campaigning may have helped push him excessive.
Then, there are the pollsters. They’ll get shellacked, but they weren’t actually that bad. the new York occasions projection as of this writing was that Clinton would win the well-liked vote with the aid of somewhat over a share point. That’s opposed to the three or 4 points the polling trade thought Clinton would win by way of. They ignored by way of two points — sufficient to swing an election however, statistically, a blip.
so that you can recap: Most american citizens thought Trump was unfit for the presidency. A slim majority of the populace has even voted for his opponent.
And now he’s president. It didn’t add up. It doesn’t add up. however there it is.